Last week, the U.S. Department of Labor released its December 2025 non-farm payrolls report. Data showed that 50,000 jobs were added that month, lower than the 73,000 expected by Wall Street economists and weaker than the revised 56,000 in November. This indicates a further slowdown in the U.S. labor market at the end of 2025, with a significant weakening of hiring demand throughout the year. Due to the data collection disruption caused by the previous federal government shutdown, this was the first relatively complete labor market report in months, and therefore received high market attention.

Following the data release, financial markets reacted mildly but in divergent directions. The dollar index rose briefly by 12 points before quickly falling back by about 26 points. Spot gold jumped $14 before quickly rising by about $30, reaching a high of $4491.46 per ounce. WTI crude oil rose to $58.60, up 2.56% for the week. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield rising 1.6 basis points to 4.195% and the 2-year yield rising 3.6 basis points to 3.524%. The positive yield curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds indicates that market concerns about an economic recession have eased, and the yield curve is in the process of normalization.

From the perspective of Federal Reserve policy, this report further reinforces the market's assessment of short-term policy stability. Before and after the data release, traders' expectations for a January rate cut remained at extremely low levels.

Overall, the trend points to a moderate recovery, but close attention needs to be paid to whether hiring activity can break out of the "low hiring, low layoffs" pattern. Short-term market sentiment has shifted from cautious optimism before the data release to neutral to cautious, and subsequent trends will depend on the evolution of consumer spending, business investment, and inflation data.

Last Week's Market Performance Review:

Last week, US stocks hit new record highs again, driven by chip stocks and "value sector rotation." Although December non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, the decline in the unemployment rate indicates that the labor market has not deteriorated rapidly, and market expectations for this year's rate cut path remain largely stable. US stocks achieved a weekly gain across the board in the first full trading week of 2026. In late U.S. trading, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6965.78, a record closing high; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81% to 23669.75; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.48% to 49500.20, also a record closing high.

Amid a continued complex and volatile global macroeconomic environment, the gold market has once again demonstrated strong upward resilience over the past week, with prices steadily shifting upwards. It is currently attempting to establish itself above the key psychological level of $4,500 and is striving to break through the previous all-time high of $4,549.80. Judging from the current market dynamics, the bulls undoubtedly hold a dominant position. The key question now lies in whether the bulls can maintain their momentum, successfully break through key resistance levels, and consolidate their gains.

Silver prices rose nearly 4% on Friday, approaching $80 an ounce, and surged more than 10% for the week, as weak U.S. jobs data exacerbated market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, triggering demand for the precious metal after index-driven selling pressure eased. New long positions and short covering in silver futures were encouraged after the annual commodity index rebalancing mechanism began to weaken mechanical selling. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela and East Asia provided secondary support.

The latest U.S. jobs report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would be cautious in its rate cuts. The dollar index rose above 99.00, near a one-month high, as investors digested fresh labor market data. Despite the weak non-farm payroll data, the dollar remained relatively strong. In addition to economic data, traders are also watching the potential Supreme Court ruling on U.S. import tariffs.

Last week, the dollar index exhibited a volatile rebound pattern, undergoing a "low-level stabilization - volatile recovery" correction. Overall, the pair remained range-bound between 98 and 99, consolidating within a medium-term downtrend. Short-term rebound momentum is limited by key resistance levels and data expectations.

The EUR/USD pair closed last week near 1.1640, recording a 0.7% decline due to dollar dominance. Selling pressure on EUR/USD has now accelerated, pushing the pair to a new multi-week low in the 1.1620-1.1610 range on Friday. The downtrend continues due to further gains in the US dollar, with market participants continuing to assess the mixed US non-farm payroll data for December. Last week, USD/JPY hovered near a one-year high, as strong US data reinforced the Fed's cautious outlook. The yen continued to weaken against the dollar, with USD/JPY rising for the fourth consecutive day as the dollar continued to strengthen following the release of the latest batch of US economic data. The pair reached a high of 158.20, hovering near its highest level since January 2025, and is poised for its second consecutive weekly gain.

The pound fell after the release of the December non-farm payrolls report, with GBP/USD dropping below 1.3450. The non-farm payrolls data reduced bets on a January Fed rate cut, although traders reduced their bets on a January rate cut. GBP/USD traded at 1.3412, having reached a high of 1.3451. Last week, the Australian dollar depreciated below US$0.6700, retreating from a 15-month high, as investors continued to assess the prospect of a February rate hike, while weak trade data weighed on sentiment. Data showed that the country's trade surplus narrowed to A$29.4 billion in November, the lowest in three months and below the forecast of A$4.9 billion.

Last week, WTI crude oil rose for the third consecutive week to around US$58.60 per barrel, as markets continued to weigh geopolitical risks. President Trump warned Iran that he would respond "toughly" if its government caused the deaths of protesters, reigniting concerns about potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC's largest oil producers. Last week, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around $91,000. Traders were awaiting the US Supreme Court's ruling on President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Currently, Bitcoin is essentially flat around $91,000, with a slight upward move on the hourly chart, but still down slightly over the past 24 hours. This pullback reflects resistance above and increased market caution following disappointing performance in 2025.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.2%, a four-month high, before falling back to 4.17%, as a jobs report revealed uncertainty about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, President Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates provided some support for the long end of the yield curve.

Market Outlook This Week:

This week (January 12-16), a flurry of global economic data and major policy events will be released. Key data such as China's monetary and credit situation, US inflation, and global oil prices will be released, coupled with the G7 finance ministers' meeting and a series of statements from Federal Reserve officials, bringing a multi-dimensional information shock to the market. From the M1-M2 money supply gap reflecting capital flows to CPI data that determines the Fed's policy path, each event could potentially disrupt asset price fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor signal changes and seize investment opportunities.

The financial markets of 2026 have not followed the script from the outset. The beginning of the year should have been a calm window for traders to plan their asset allocation for the new year, but reality has caught everyone off guard. The market generally expected this year's themes to be the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the continued penetration of artificial intelligence into industries. However, with a series of sudden geopolitical events, these mild macroeconomic narratives have been quickly marginalized.

Regarding risks this week:

Risk Warning: Geopolitical and policy variables require close attention.

In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could trigger increased risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar.

Second, speeches by central bank officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank could signal a policy shift, potentially leading to rapid corrections in market expectations and sharp short-term fluctuations in corresponding currencies.

Third, significant discrepancies between the US's supplementary data releases and market expectations could cause temporary volatility in the stock, bond, and currency markets.

This Week's Conclusion:

Looking ahead, the labor market may gradually recover in 2026, supported by low borrowing costs and potential tax breaks, but uncertainties remain. Job growth in 2025 was concentrated in education and healthcare, with overall demand slowing, but third-quarter GDP grew at its fastest pace in two years, primarily driven by resilient consumption and AI investment, laying a foundation for 2026. However, tariff rhetoric, geopolitical instability, and the substitution effect of AI on some jobs could exacerbate structural challenges. Consumer confidence has recently declined due to concerns about inflation and the employment outlook, but accelerating productivity growth suggests the economy has long-term health potential. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its cautious assessment, seeking a balance between growth and inflation.

Overall, the trend points to a moderate recovery, but close attention needs to be paid to whether hiring activity can move beyond the pattern of "low hiring, low layoffs." Short-term market sentiment has shifted from cautious optimism before data releases to neutral to cautious; subsequent movements will depend on the evolution of consumer spending, business investment, and inflation data.

The Real Reason Behind Maduro's Arrest in the US!

The core of the US arrest of Maduro is to use the pretext of "drug control" to promote regime change, control Venezuela's energy and mineral resources, and serve the Trump administration's domestic election and geopolitical interests. The so-called "drug terrorism" is merely a pretext to cover up multiple strategic demands. The following analysis unfolds from multiple dimensions:

I. Core Motivation: Geopolitics and Resource Control

**Oil Strategic Value:** Venezuela boasts some of the world's largest proven oil reserves. Its heavy oil is a key feedstock for refineries in the US Gulf Coast. US refining facilities are highly adapted to Venezuelan heavy oil. Controlling Venezuelan energy could reduce dependence on alternative sources like Canadian heavy oil, compress costs, stabilize the supply chain, and simultaneously weaken Venezuela's geopolitical influence as an anti-US energy power. Trump's public mention of "temporarily running Venezuela" reveals his covetousness of Venezuela's oil and gas system; the essence of his actions is an attempt to achieve long-term control over energy through regime change.

**Anti-US Regime Change:** The Maduro government insists on energy nationalization and maintains an anti-US stance, cooperating with countries like China and Russia. The US views it as an unstable factor in its "backyard." Through the arrests, the US attempts to dismantle the Venezuelan government, support a pro-US opposition, eliminate anti-US regimes in Latin America, and strengthen its own dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Key Mineral Interests: Venezuela possesses strategic minerals such as rare earth elements, aligning with the US's strategic need for self-sufficiency in key supply chains. Controlling Venezuelan resources helps consolidate its dominant position in the global industrial chain.

II. Domestic Political Drivers: Elections and Public Opinion Mobilization

Electional Political Considerations: The Trump administration portrayed Maduro as a "drug lord," linking drugs, violence, and border issues to construct a narrative of "external threat—US action." This aggressive external action diverted attention from domestic governance problems (such as inflation and immigration), accumulating political capital for the election and cultivating an image of an "effective" president.

Public Opinion Mobilization Tool: The arrest operation provided a clear "justice vs. evil" narrative framework, allowing voters to make value judgments without needing in-depth knowledge of Latin American politics. This quickly rallied public opinion, solidified its support base, and offset the pressure from domestic policy controversies.

III. Action Path: The "Drug Prohibition" Pretext and Long-Term Strategy

Legal and Public Opinion Groundwork: In 2020, the US Department of Justice indicted Maduro on charges of "drug terrorism," and in 2025, increased the bounty on his head to $50 million, designating the "Solar Group" as a global terrorist organization, thus creating legal and public opinion grounds for the operation. However, authoritative research shows that Venezuela is not a major drug-producing country or a major transshipment route, and the Maduro government's long-term strong anti-drug campaign is essentially a political pretext.

Military and Economic Pressure: The US military has deployed on a large scale in the Caribbean Sea, sinking ships and imposing a maritime blockade under the guise of drug interdiction, while simultaneously sanctioning Maduro's family and allies. Through extreme pressure, it aims to alienate the Venezuelan elite and create conditions for the arrest operation.

IV. Essence: A Manifestation of Hegemonic Logic

This US action disregards international law and national sovereignty, representing a typical "predatory order based on US interests." Its core is to maintain its hegemony in the Americas by controlling Venezuela's resources and reforming its regime, while simultaneously serving its domestic political interests. The so-called "judicial justice" is merely a cloak to mask its hegemonic behavior. The US Dollar Index faces a crucial test at the 97.75-98.00 support level. The 97.75-98.00 range is currently a key support level and a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish trends. It is facing a triple test from data, policy, and technical factors. A break below this level would open up further downside potential, while a sustained hold would likely lead to a return to a slightly bullish trend. The following analysis examines the technical aspects, driving forces, and operational strategies:

I. Technical Aspects: Support Logic and Breakout/Stabilization Path

Support Effectiveness: 97.75 is the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (approximately 97.76 as of January 9th). 98.00 is a key psychological level and the recent consolidation zone. These two levels combine to form a strong support zone, and together with the previous pullback low of 97.46, they form a gradient support system. The RSI (14) is approximately 54.30, indicating a slightly bullish bias. The MACD is near the zero line, suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces, lacking clear trend guidance. Key Signals: Breakout Confirmation: If the closing price falls below 97.75 and the retracement is ineffective, coupled with the RSI breaking below 50 and the MACD forming a death cross, the next target is 97.46, and if that level is breached, the next target is 96.87-96.21. Stabilization and Strengthening: If the price stabilizes above 98.00 and breaks through the strong resistance zone of 98.52-98.59, and the RSI crosses above 55 and the MACD forms a golden cross, the potential to extend to 98.90-99.30 is possible.

II. Fundamentals: Market Outlook Under Integration

From a fundamental perspective, weak ADP employment growth, combined with stable wage growth, reinforces the narrative that the US economy is experiencing a moderate slowdown. This helps to curb inflation expectations and creates conditions for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recently, economic concerns from Europe and uncertainties arising from geopolitical situations (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict), coupled with trade environment anxieties triggered by tariff rhetoric, have collectively created a risk-averse atmosphere, driving funds towards assets such as US Treasuries and lowering yields. This, combined with the impact of weak employment data, has created a synergistic effect.

III. Trading Strategies

Short-term traders: Use 97.75-98.00 as a risk control line. If it breaks below this level and then rebounds but fails to hold, consider a small short position; if it holds, consider a long position.

Swing traders: Pay attention to the daily closing price and the resonance of technical indicators. If the closing price breaks down and the indicators weaken, consider a swing short position; if it stabilizes and the indicators strengthen, wait for a pullback before going long, targeting around 99.00.

Risk control: Given the intense battle between bulls and bears, it is recommended to control position size, set reasonable stop-loss orders, and avoid heavy one-sided trading before data releases.

In summary, the test of the 97.75-98.00 support zone is essentially a market repricing of the Fed's policies and the resilience of the US economy. Data and policy signals will determine the short-term direction; traders need to pay close attention to confirmation of breakouts/breakouts at key levels, as well as the convergence of indicator signals.

Will Oil Prices Hit a New Low or Reach a New Beginning Amid Trump's Oil Storm and Venezuelan Geopolitical Turmoil?

In the short term, oil prices experienced a brief surge due to the "Trump oil storm" and the Venezuelan geopolitical turmoil. However, in the medium to long term, given oversupply, weak demand, and expectations of production recovery, the risk of oil prices hitting a new low outweighs the possibility of a new beginning. A wide-ranging downward trend is highly probable in 2026.

Short-Term: Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Increased Volatility

Event Impact and Price Reaction:

On January 3, 2026, the US military's surprise attack on Venezuela and control of Maduro triggered market concerns about supply disruptions. Brent and WTI oil prices briefly surged, closing higher on January 5, but subsequently fell rapidly, reaching approximately $60/barrel for Brent and $57/barrel for WTI on January 8.

Key Influencing Variables:

Supply Disruption Risk: If the transition period is chaotic, Venezuelan short-term production may fall below 700,000 barrels per day, pushing up premiums due to a heavy oil supply gap.

Market Sentiment Disruption: Geopolitical uncertainty increases safe-haven demand, but lacks fundamental support, making sustained price increases weak.

Institutional Expectations: January Brent crude is expected to trade between $58-63 per barrel, and WTI between $55-60 per barrel, with a high probability of a pullback after an initial surge.

Medium- to Long-Term: Oversupply dominates, with significant downward pressure.

Supply Side: Clear supply increases, persistent pressure.

Venezuelan Production Recovery: If the US lifts sanctions and promotes investment, production may increase to 950,000 barrels per day within three months, reaching 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially approaching historical peaks in the long term, exacerbating the oversupply.

Strong Non-OPEC+ Production Growth: Continued production increases from US shale oil, Brazil, Guyana, and other sources suggest the IEA predicts supply growth will far exceed demand in 2026, with the surplus potentially peaking in the first half of the year.

OPEC+ Policy Constraints: While the eight major oil-producing countries maintain production cuts, this is insufficient to offset the anticipated increases from non-OPEC+ and Venezuelan producers.

Demand Side: Weak Growth, Ceiling Appearing

Macroeconomic and Structural Pressures: A weak global economy, accelerated substitution of renewable energy sources, and sluggish chemical demand lead the IEA to predict only a 0.8% year-on-year increase in crude oil demand in 2026, with developed economies entering a structural decline.

Increased Substitution Effect: The widespread adoption of electric vehicles and green power generation are squeezing crude oil demand, making a long-term slowdown in demand growth inevitable.

Institutional Forecasts and Downward Price Shift:

Goldman Sachs: Brent crude averages $56/barrel in 2026, WTI $52/barrel. Venezuelan production recovery will increase downside risks after 2027.

Morgan Stanley: Oversupply widened in the first half of the year, peaking mid-year, putting significant pressure on oil prices.

Market Consensus: Brent crude may fluctuate widely between $50 and $70 per barrel in 2026, with the central level shifting down by about $10 per barrel compared to 2025.

Conclusion and Investment Implications:

Conclusion: Short-term geopolitical disturbances are unlikely to change the medium- to long-term oversupply situation, and the risk of oil prices breaking through to new lows is higher. A new starting point requires a reversal in the supply-demand structure (such as large-scale production cuts and an unexpected recovery in demand), which is highly unlikely in 2026.

Implications: Trading: Short-term speculation on geopolitical impulses is possible, but quick entry and exit are necessary. Medium-term strategy should focus on shorting on rallies. Asset Allocation: Avoid high-cost oil and gas assets and focus on opportunities in low-cost production capacity and new energy alternatives.

Will Gold's Role Transform in 2026?

Since the beginning of 2026, gold prices have been hovering near historical highs, even approaching the $4,500 mark at one point. Strangely, this round of price increases has not been accompanied by significant inflation—consumer prices have remained generally stable, and unexpected inflation data has become much less frequent. Following the logic of the past decade or so, once inflation cools and real interest rates remain high, gold should lose its appeal and gradually decline. However, the reality is quite the opposite. Gold has not only not "receded," but has also shown remarkable resilience after breaking through, repeatedly consolidating above key support levels.

This apparent "divergence" is not a market failure, but rather a signal: gold's function is undergoing a fundamental shift. It is no longer merely a tool to hedge against the shrinking purchasing power of currency, but is increasingly being used by traders as a structural "anchor" to hedge against deeper macroeconomic vulnerabilities. The current market's pricing focus has shifted from "whether inflation will rebound" to "whether policy can still control the situation."

What truly drives gold prices is no longer inflation data, but rather concerns about future fiscal sustainability, the credibility of monetary policy, and the stability of the entire financial system. Developed countries still have high levels of government debt, limited room for new fiscal spending, and central banks are facing a dilemma: further tightening could trigger financial turmoil, while premature easing would undermine policy credibility. Against this backdrop, the "margin for error" in policy has narrowed significantly, and the market is beginning to worry about "what if something goes wrong?" Gold is precisely the asset priced for this "possibility of error."

Gold's New Role: An Insurance Policy for Balance Sheets

If in the previous cycle gold was a weapon against the printing press, then in 2026 gold is more like an "insurance policy for balance sheets." It protects against not immediate price fluctuations, but against potential credit dilution and policy missteps. Even if inflation expectations remain stable, gold has reason to be supported as long as the capacity of the public sector and the financial system is questioned.

A significant change is the weakening correlation between gold and real interest rates. Previously, rising real interest rates meant a higher opportunity cost of holding gold, typically putting downward pressure on gold prices. However, in the current environment, even without a significant decline in interest rates, gold has shown remarkable resilience. This indicates that funds are no longer valuing gold solely based on monetary variables, but rather viewing it as a neutral reserve asset to cope with institutional uncertainty and long-term policy constraints.

Market behavior also confirms this. During this round of gold price increases, there have been no typical signs of speculative frenzy. Conversely, after reaching a new high above $4,500, gold prices entered a phase of orderly correction. The pullback was mild, and momentum indicators gradually cooled without disrupting the trend. More importantly, each dip was met with buying support, indicating that institutional funds were using the pullback for allocation, rather than retail investors chasing highs and lows. This rhythm of "rising, consolidating, and then correcting" reflects a growing market acceptance of higher price levels.

Central Bank Portfolio Restructuring and Dollar Easing: A Silent Reserve Revolution

Driven by strong gold prices, it's not just short-term sentiment or trading logic, but also a structural force from the top: global central banks are re-evaluating their foreign exchange reserve structures. Data shows that in recent years, gold's share of global official reserves has been steadily increasing, even surpassing the proportion of US Treasury bonds for the first time in some statistical dimensions. This is not accidental, but a systemic reengineering of reserve management.

Faced with an increasingly fragmented international order, frequent geopolitical frictions, and the restructuring of energy and trade patterns, central banks are beginning to reduce their reliance on single currencies and assets. For decades, the "dollar + US Treasury" combination was considered a naturally safe-haven asset portfolio. However, this assumption is now being reassessed. Some capital has begun to express its cautious stance on the "dollar's dominance" through its actions—the dollar index has experienced a near double-digit decline over the past year, which is not merely a cyclical adjustment but may reflect a deeper shift in confidence.

Against this backdrop, gold's advantages become apparent: it is not owned by any single country, its value is not affected by any country's policy changes, and it is not directly impacted by sovereign credit risk. Therefore, even without major geopolitical conflicts, as long as uncertainty persists at a low frequency, it can support demand for gold. This demand is often highly sticky—it doesn't withdraw due to price corrections but may instead increase holdings on dips, creating a "buy the dip" pattern.

Meanwhile, the performance of other metals also provides corroborating evidence for gold. Silver is being revalued due to a combination of tight supply and industrial demand; copper prices are at historical highs, reflecting confidence in long-term growth in the physical commodity supply chain; aluminum and nickel are also slowly rising. The entire commodity spectrum is exhibiting a coordinated structural revaluation, with gold serving as the core anchor. Unlike copper, which represents "belief in the future," gold represents "vigilance in the present."

$4,800 is not the end; $5,000 is no longer just a slogan.

Looking ahead, gold doesn't need extreme easing or runaway inflation to drive further gains. As long as the uncertainty of real returns persists, the opportunity cost logic of holding gold will continue to weaken. Even if the Fed cuts interest rates in the future, the market's real concern isn't the amount cut, but whether the policy path is clear and the forward guidance is credible. Once policy statements become vague and conditional, funds tend to position themselves in gold as a "waiting" place, rather than waiting for a crisis to erupt before "escaping."

Under this logic, $4,800 is more like the next natural step, and $5,000 is no longer an emotional slogan, but a price level gradually acquiring the characteristics of a "structural target." Of course, this doesn't mean gold prices will skyrocket. A path more in line with the laws of financial markets is a gradual rise in the central level: consolidation after an increase, absorption of pullbacks, rebuilding of positions during fluctuations, and ultimately forming a new equilibrium.

Ultimately, gold's strength in 2026 is not due to panic, but to sobriety. It's not a prediction of economic collapse, but a reminder that constraints are accumulating, resilience is disappearing, and the system's "margin of safety" is thinner than it appears. When policy space is limited, fiscal burdens are heavy, and institutional credibility is tested, gold is no longer just an option, but a necessary asset allocation.

Oil Prices Slide Towards Biggest Drop Since 2020; Plunging Nearly 20%!

US crude oil prices may be heading for their worst annual drop since the 2020 pandemic. Oil prices remain under pressure as market concerns that a severe oversupply will dominate market sentiment and continue into 2026 trading continue.

Crude oil prices plummeted in 2025 due to a surge in supply from OPEC+ and its competitors, coupled with slowing global demand growth. Top forecasting agencies, including the International Energy Agency, predict a severe oversupply in 2026, and even the OPEC Secretariat, usually more optimistic than other agencies, predicts a moderate oversupply.

In addition, traders are watching the partial US blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments. US President Trump revealed a covert US strike on what he described a drug trafficking facility, raising new questions about how far Washington is willing to go to pressure the Maduro regime.

Crude Oil Technical Outlook

Under the aforementioned risks, the market is forecasting a bearish outlook for crude oil prices in 2026. Oversupply pressures combined with a two-year downtrend continuing from the September 2023 high are threatening the break-even price for exporting countries. Demand potential and key price levels will be crucial indicators for confirming the 2026 outlook.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices have been dominated by a descending channel since the 2022 peak. The more clearly defined descending channel formed from the September 2023 high, coupled with global supply growth, continues to suppress oil prices below the $60 mark.

On the upside, a weekly close above $62.60 could open a path to $66.40 and then $68. If the trend remains above the upper channel line and the psychological level of $70, it would signal initial confirmation of a long-term bullish reversal structure. On the downside, a decisive break below $55 would target the lower channel line at $50, significantly reinforcing the bearish bias.

The overall structure of crude oil is showing a potential double-bottom reversal pattern, which corresponds to the risk of exporter breakeven prices, whether based on the low of $55 or the lower end of the two-year channel at $50. However, as long as prices remain within the downward channel formed since 2023, coupled with slowing global oil demand growth, the overall bearish trend remains unchanged.

Overview of Key Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (January 12): Global December ANZ Commodity Price Index YoY (%); Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index; G7 Finance Ministers Meeting

Tuesday (January 13): Japan November Trade Balance - Central Bank Seasonally Adjusted Based on Customs Data (billion yen); Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the Week Ending January 11; US ​​December CPI YoY (Unadjusted) (%); US October Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales (thousands of units)

Wednesday (January 14): US November Retail Sales MoM (%); US Q3 Current Account (billion USD); US November PPI YoY (%); US December Existing Home Sales (thousands of units); EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report

Wednesday (January 14): US November Retail Sales (MoM) (%); US Q3 Current Account (USD billion); US November PPI (YoY) (%); US December Existing Home Sales (Annualized) (thousands of units); EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report

Thursday (January 15): UK November GDP (MoM) (%); UK November Industrial Production (MoM) (%); UK November Goods Trade Balance - Seasonally Adjusted (GBP billion); Eurozone November Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance (EUR billion); US January New York Fed Manufacturing Index; US January SPGI Manufacturing PMI Preliminary; Federal Reserve Beige Book on Economic Conditions.

Friday (January 16): US December Industrial Production (MoM) (%); US December Manufacturing Production (MoM) (%)

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