US Dollar Index

Heading into the weekend, the US Dollar Index hovered near 101.70, remaining close to a three-week low of 101.45. A flight to safety drove a sharp decline in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar. On Thursday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell by more than 10 basis points to below 5%, marking a one-month low. Intensifying sell-offs in technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks boosted demand for government bonds. Growing market concerns regarding the sustainability of AI-related investments—a key driver of US economic growth—have also led to a downward revision in expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market assigns a probability of approximately 91% that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next week, while the likelihood of a rate hike in December stands at about 80%. The US dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen; the yen typically attracts safe-haven demand during periods of heightened market uncertainty.
The US dollar has come under pressure as doubts deepen regarding the sustainability of the "AI trade." Investor confidence has waned following quarterly earnings misses from several major technology companies. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has fueled broader risk-aversion in the markets. Reports suggesting that the US and Israel may be preparing for further military strikes against Iran—potentially following the upcoming midterm elections—have spurred demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the yen and the Swiss franc against the dollar. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials have indicated that there is little urgency to accelerate policy tightening. While Fed officials have expressed optimism regarding the inherent resilience of the US economy, they have offered no clear signal on whether further rate hikes are necessary. Despite this relatively dovish tone, market participants—using the CME FedWatch tool—currently estimate a 92.8% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its October 27–28 policy meeting.

Last week, the US Dollar Index experienced an initial rise followed by a decline—a week of volatility characterized by an upward push driven by inflation data, succeeded by profit-taking in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials. The index reached a weekly high of 102.94—a level not seen in approximately 18 months—before retreating. By Friday, it pulled back to test support near 101.80. The weekly candle is likely to close as a bullish line with an upper shadow; while the overall bullish trend remains intact, short-term momentum has clearly waned. The primary market driver was the September CPI, which exceeded expectations and fueled speculation regarding a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing the dollar higher alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields. Subsequently, Warsh’s remarks—indicating he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions—led the market to lower the probability of an October hike. As U.S. Treasury yields retreated, investors locked in profits, causing the dollar to fall from its highs. In short: the medium-term bullish trend persists, but the short-term dynamic has shifted from a one-way rally to high-level oscillation and consolidation. A range-bound approach is currently preferable to blindly chasing further gains.
Technical outlook for next week: On the daily chart, the U.S. Dollar Index (spot) is trading at 101.70. The short-term bias remains slightly bullish, as the price holds above the 25-day simple moving average (SMA) of 101.36—a sign that underlying demand persists following the recent rebound from below the 100 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57.30, remaining in a neutral-to-positive zone; this suggests that upward momentum is slowing but has not yet deteriorated. On the downside, initial support is found at the 25-day SMA (101.36) and the 101.00 psychological level, with the SMA serving as a key technical floor during the current consolidation. As long as this level contains any pullbacks, the broader constructive tone may hold; however, a decisive break below it would signal that the bullish phase is losing steam. On the upside, the 102.28 level (5-day simple moving average) and 102.53 (the high from October 5) serve as the initial resistance zone. A breakout above these levels would target 102.94 (the high from October 14) and the 103.00 psychological round-number mark.

For today, one might consider shorting the USD at 101.85, with a stop-loss at 101.95 and targets at 101.45 and 101.35.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remained above $0.70 last week, hovering near a four-week high. Hawkish remarks from central bank officials bolstered market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that while tighter monetary policy is taking effect, the inflation outlook has "deteriorated significantly," partly due to persistently high oil prices. He emphasized the need to keep inflation expectations anchored ahead of the RBA’s November 3 meeting, when policymakers will consider a fifth rate hike this year. Following these comments, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike in November doubled to 64%. Investors are now focused on next week’s third-quarter inflation data; core inflation is expected to rise by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, up from the previous 0.9%. The annual core inflation rate is also projected to remain at 3.5%—well above the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, global equity markets—led by a sell-off in tech stocks—have come under pressure amid concerns over the scale of investments in artificial intelligence, weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar.

Last week, the exchange rate saw a modest rebound to test overhead resistance before facing renewed selling pressure. The overall structure remains one of weak, range-bound movement with rallies meeting resistance; the daily price center has shifted slightly lower, and no clear reversal signal has emerged. The exchange rate rebounded toward the 0.6990–0.7000 zone before encountering resistance and pulling back. Bullish momentum remains weak; this represents a tepid recovery from an oversold condition rather than a trend reversal. The weekly candle closed as a small bearish candle—or a doji—with an upper shadow. The 0.6900 level below serves as a medium-term support zone, tested multiple times this year, and acts as a critical dividing line between bulls and bears. While the price approached this level several times last week without a decisive breakdown—indicating some buying interest—the actual buying pressure remains insufficient. In terms of fundamental drivers, weaker-than-expected Australian employment data has dampened expectations for RBA rate hikes. Meanwhile, persistent U.S. inflation has supported the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Compounded by fluctuating risk sentiment and volatility in commodities like iron ore, the Australian dollar—a currency sensitive to both commodity prices and risk appetite—has faced persistent limitations on its rebound.

Review of last week’s technical performance: The AUD/USD pair stabilized near its recent low of 0.6900, staging a corrective rebound. The price shifted higher throughout the week, testing resistance near 0.7030; however, it faced selling pressure at the 0.7032–0.7035 zone—a confluence of the 100-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair failed to establish a firm foothold, confirming that this was merely a weak rebound following a decline, not a trend reversal. Although the lows for the AUD/USD have been gradually rising, the price remains below the 50-day moving average, and the broader downward structure remains intact. Bullish momentum is lacking, and the rebound lacks conviction. Last week’s drivers included hawkish remarks from RBA officials and positive economic data from China, which spurred some buying. However, the resilience of the U.S. dollar and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes capped the upside, leading to a narrowing of the trading range after an initial push higher. Conclusion for last week: The pair experienced a corrective, range-bound recovery from low levels, encountering strong resistance at key moving averages. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has intensified, with the market now awaiting major data releases to confirm the next directional move. On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading above 0.7000 but remains constrained, as it stays below both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.7034 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7051, with the 55-day SMA positioned even higher at 0.7073. The alignment of these key moving averages above the current price suggests that any rebound may encounter selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 51, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 33, indicating that the trend remains moderate but is losing momentum. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 200-day SMA (0.7051), followed by the 55-day SMA (0.7073) and the 0.7100 level. Further up, additional resistance is found at 0.7140 (the September 21 high), followed by the 0.7200 psychological level. On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day SMA (0.6975), with further support at 0.6916 (the lower Bollinger Band). Should selling pressure intensify, deeper support can be found at the 0.6900 level.

For today, consider going long on the AUD at 0.7020; stop-loss: 0.7010; targets: 0.7060 and 0.7070.

GBP/USD

Last week, the British pound traded below $1.34, hovering near its highest level in a month. Investors are currently assessing a mixed bag of economic data while awaiting the upcoming budget announcement and the Bank of England’s policy meeting on November 5. Preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows that activity in the UK private sector has accelerated to its fastest pace since February, with both the manufacturing and services sectors outperforming expectations. However, the decline in retail sales for September was sharper than anticipated, and consumer confidence saw its largest monthly drop since the onset of the pandemic—reflecting persistent cost-of-living pressures and market concerns regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Inflation data released earlier this week came in stronger than expected, prompting the market to increase bets on further monetary policy tightening; as of April 2027, the market has priced in at least three 25-basis-point rate hikes, with the first potentially arriving as early as November 5. Investors are now awaiting next week’s budget announcement, where Chancellor John Healey is expected to emphasize fiscal discipline.
Heading into the weekend, the British pound (GBP) weakened against major currencies, falling against the US dollar to trade near 1.3370. The pound remained under pressure despite the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UK in October, which came in unexpectedly strong. The UK economy regained momentum in October, with preliminary PMI data indicating the fastest pace of growth since February. This encouraging sign of economic resilience was further evidenced by businesses increasing their headcount—the first such rise since hiring was dampened following the autumn 2024 budget. Earlier in the day, UK retail sales data proved weaker than expected; the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) decline in retail sales for September—a sharper drop than the 0.1% decline the market had anticipated. Regarding monetary policy, it appears almost certain that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its November policy meeting.
Review of last week’s technical performance: Throughout the week, the GBP/USD pair experienced range-bound consolidation following a rebound from lower levels, rather than a clear, one-sided trend. Early in the week, the pair staged a recovery from support near 1.3330, driven by expectations of persistent inflation in the UK. It tested the 1.3400 level and the resistance zone around 1.3420 (last week’s high). The resulting candlestick was a small bullish candle, characterized by a narrowing trading range and a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Daily timeframe structure: Short-term lows are gradually rising, indicating a corrective rebound. However, resistance at 1.3409 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and 1.3420 (last week’s high) remains effective; the bulls have failed to achieve a breakout accompanied by significant volume. The core technical conclusion is that last week’s movement was a corrective rebound following a decline. While the bulls have gained a temporary advantage, they have not broken through key resistance, meaning the overall trend has not reversed—the outlook is best characterized as "ranging with a bullish bias." The 1.3330 level serves as the critical defensive line for the bulls; holding this level keeps the rebound structure intact, while a breakdown would signal the end of this rebound phase.

Looking at the technicals for the coming week, GBP/USD is trading below 1.3400 on the daily chart. The pair remains above the 1.3327 level (the 34-day simple moving average) and the 1.3300 psychological mark, supporting a slightly bullish short-term bias as the price continues its rebound from recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55—within positive territory but not yet in overbought conditions—suggesting steady upward momentum rather than an exhausted rebound. On the downside, the area around 1.3327 (34-day SMA) and 1.3300 acts as immediate support; as long as this zone holds, the broader rebound structure remains reinforced. The pair is likely to continue testing higher levels, though a sustained drop back below 1.3267 (the October 16 low) would indicate that bullish pressure is waning. Conversely, if GBP/USD reclaims the 1.3400 mark and the 1.3420 area (last week’s high), the next targets would be 1.3432 (the 200-day simple moving average) followed by the 1.3500 level.

Consider going long on the British Pound (GBP) at 1.3360 today; stop-loss: 1.3350; targets: 1.3390, 1.3400.

USD/JPY

In the latter part of last week, the USD/JPY pair traded just below the 157 level, having previously touched a low near the 156 mark—a continuation of the corrective trend that began after the pair retreated from above 160. The core dynamic currently driving the exchange rate involves two competing forces: on the Japanese side, inflation data has come in stronger than expected, providing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) with a clear rationale for interest rate hikes and triggering proactive buying of the yen. On the U.S. side, while the Federal Reserve’s lack of urgency to hike rates has sapped the dollar’s ​​upward momentum, the possibility of further tightening by year-end remains on the table, which in turn limits the yen’s potential for significant gains. This interplay creates a tug-of-war: the pair is prone to declines and struggles to sustain any meaningful rally, yet a decisive breakout would require a new catalyst. From the perspective of the yen, the broad-based rise in inflation is the primary driver of its recent strength. September’s CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year, with core CPI also reaching 2.1% (up from 1.8% in August, which was revised upward from 1.7%). These figures indicate that Japan’s inflation rebound is not merely a temporary fluctuation driven by energy costs, but is instead spreading into core, demand-driven sectors—a development the central bank views as a key signal for rate hikes, and the fundamental reason for the yen’s immediate strengthening following the data release.

Conversely, the U.S. side exerts a counteracting influence. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest little urgency to accelerate policy tightening, with policymakers declining to pre-judge decisions for October and December. For the USD/JPY pair, this creates a "dovish in the short term, hawkish in the medium term" dynamic: while a pause in rate hikes next week is widely anticipated, the prospect of further tightening by year-end has not been ruled out. Consequently, the dollar’s ​​recent pullback appears more like a technical correction than a fundamental shift toward a bearish trend. As long as the pair remains above the 127 level—and the path toward year-end tightening remains a possibility—the interest rate differential is unlikely to see a systemic decline, meaning any sharp rally in the yen is likely to face resistance from investors unwinding carry trades. Technical Review of Last Week: Early last week, the exchange rate fluctuated within the 157.50–158.50 range. Multiple attempts to break above the 158.40–158.50 resistance zone failed, leading to a gradual exhaustion of bullish momentum. In the latter half of the week, the price broke below the 157.50 support level—which then flipped into resistance—and tested the 156.00 level. The weekly structure shifted from range-bound to a bearish-leaning consolidation. With the price falling below short-term moving averages, bearish momentum has begun to emerge; however, as conditions are not yet extremely oversold, there remains room for further downside. On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has fallen below the 100-period moving average, which now acts as resistance. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price tracking along the lower band, indicating short-term bearish dominance. Nevertheless, as the price approaches the 156.00–156.20 support zone, there is potential for a technical rebound. Key drivers last week included a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a flight to the Japanese Yen (a safe-haven asset), and hawkish expectations regarding the Bank of Japan—all of which exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The 158.50 level has become a strong short-term ceiling; unless the price can firmly establish itself above this point, any rebound should be viewed as a corrective move within a bearish trend, rather than a reversal.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY has remained in a corrective phase since peaking above 160. The price is currently trading below the lower Bollinger Band (at 156.84) and is capped by the 25-day simple moving average (at 157.88). Rebound attempts continue to face resistance, and the medium-term bearish structure remains intact. The RSI (14) stands at 41.64—having slipped below the neutral 50 level—signaling that downward pressure remains dominant. Although some of the previous overbought conditions have been absorbed, the current setup is best characterized as a "weak consolidation near support." On the upside, resistance levels to watch include the 5-day moving average at 157.65 (previously support, now acting as resistance) and the 25-day simple moving average at 157.88. A break above these would point toward 158.89 (the upper Bollinger Band). Only a decisive daily close below the 156.08 level (last week’s low) and the 156.00 psychological mark would alleviate the current bullish bias and open the door for a move toward 155.34 (the low from September 7).

For today, one might consider shorting the USD at 157.00, with a stop-loss at 157.20 and targets at 156.20 and 156.10.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has fallen toward the 1.1200 level, remaining near multi-month lows following weaker-than-expected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. Meanwhile, the euro continues to be weighed down by concerns over rising public debt and growing social unrest across Europe. Preliminary data indicates that private-sector growth in the Eurozone slowed to a four-month low in October, as the economy faced renewed contraction driven by surging energy costs, higher interest rates, and political and fiscal uncertainty in France. Consumer confidence also deteriorated more sharply than anticipated. At the same time, investors remain anxious about rising borrowing costs across Europe—particularly in France, where the yield on 10-year government bonds has climbed to a 24-year high, and the risk premium has reached its highest level since the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis of 2011. Looking ahead, further demonstrations are expected across the region, while investors await next week’s inflation data and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.

The release of these October survey results comes as recent U.S. economic data continues to demonstrate resilience in economic activity, despite persistent inflationary pressures and elevated borrowing costs. Investors will be closely monitoring this data for signs of slowing growth or a resurgence in price pressures—factors that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and the value of the US dollar. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in business activity, particularly within the services sector, could spark concerns regarding the sustainability of US economic growth. Weak PMI readings might prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening, which would exert downward pressure on the US dollar and provide support for the EUR/USD pair. However, if the data largely aligns with expectations, the market reaction may remain relatively muted, as both manufacturing and services activity are anticipated to stay firmly within the expansionary zone.

Last week, the exchange rate staged a recovery from a low of 1.1113. After an initial push higher early in the week, the pair faced persistent pressure, failing multiple attempts to break through the neckline resistance at 1.1275–1.1285 before retreating. The weekly candle closed as a "doji-like" pattern—a classic sign of consolidation and "shakeout" activity at a low level. Currently trading near 1.1200, the pair remains in a phase of consolidation and range-bound oscillation; no trend reversal has occurred. The rebound is driven by a pullback in the US dollar rather than a fundamental shift in the euro’s outlook. The gradual rise in lows (from 1.1113 to above 1.1180) points to a weak, corrective rebound. The MACD shows the early stages of a "golden cross" below the zero line, but momentum remains tepid, and the rebound lacks sufficient volume. Furthermore, the 25-day moving average at 1.1270 continues to act as overhead resistance, meaning the broader bearish structure remains intact. Key constraints from last week included concerns over French public finances—which capped the euro’s upside—and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, which kept the US dollar volatile. With the bulls lacking the momentum for a sustained push and the bears temporarily losing the strength to drive further declines, the market has entered a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Technical Outlook for Next Week: On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair maintains a short-term bearish bias, as the spot price remains below both the 25-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1270 and the 34-day SMA at 1.1345. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14), currently at approximately 37.29, sits below the neutral 50 level; this suggests that bullish momentum is fading, though the pair has not yet reached clearly oversold territory. Consequently, with these moving averages acting as resistance, downside risks persist—indicating that downward pressure remains in play rather than an imminent rebound. On the upside, initial resistance is found near the 25-day SMA at 1.1270, with stronger resistance located at the 34-day SMA near 1.1345. Should sustained buying push the price above these levels, it could lead to a rise toward the September 30 high of 1.1380, while also reinforcing a broader supply zone at higher levels. On the downside, the October 19 low of 1.1185 serves as the initial support, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1125. A decisive break below this area would open the door for a further decline toward the 1.1100 psychological level.

For today, consider going long on the EUR/USD at 1.1190; stop-loss: 1.1180; targets: 1.1240, 1.1250.

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil prices rose to a nearly six-month high above $103.27 a barrel before the end of last week, and were on track to rise more than 3.9% this week amid growing supply concerns in the Middle East. U.S. Central Command confirmed that a Singapore-flagged container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz early last week was hit by an Iranian projectile, adding to uncertainty over the prospects for a resumption of physical oil shipments and pushing tanker freight rates to record highs. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels further exacerbate supply risks. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency agreed to continue releasing the remaining 100 million barrels of oil from a coordinated intervention launched in March, following lobbying from U.S. officials. Elsewhere, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels last week, the largest drop since February.
Trump used the Defense Production Act to increase local crude oil infrastructure: However, the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait escalated, and there were rigid commercial constraints on increasing shale oil production, so oil prices continued to rise. On October 22, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to sign a memorandum to promote the expansion of domestic energy infrastructure such as crude oil, storage, pipelines and refining in the United States, in an attempt to alleviate the pressure of high oil prices under the Iran conflict. At the same time, Iran's Tasnim News Agency: Saudi fighter jets launched air strikes on Yemen's Port of Muhar and attacked the port area three times. The influence of the Houthis and Saudi Arabia on Mander is still deepening. However, the shale oil industry is subject to practical constraints such as capital discipline, long-term profit assessment, oil service and well location bottlenecks, etc. Administrative incentives are difficult to quickly transform into substantial increments, and there is a significant time lag in the suppression effect on oil prices.

This week's technical trend review: The current WTI main force closed at about 102.85 on Friday. The core characteristics of last week: the geo-premium pushed up, and the daily bullish trend continued, but the short-term entered the high pressure zone, and the indicators had the risk of passivation/top divergence; the upward trend continued last week, relying on the support of the MA20 and MA50 moving averages to fluctuate higher, and then surged higher again after multiple retracements during the week; the high positive line closed on Friday, and the closing stood firm at 100 Above, but the upper shadow appears in late trading, indicating that the selling pressure in the 103-104 range is obvious, and the resistance to bullish attacks has increased. RSI rose to around 69, close to the overbought area of ​​70; the MACD red column continues to exist, but the red column is highly convergent, and there is a hidden danger of top divergence with new highs in price and failure to keep up with momentum, which is the most important technical signal this week. Funding and market characteristics: Geographical factors (Hormuz, Red Sea shipping risks) were the main driver last week, and technical aspects passively followed the news; news-driven market characteristics: sharp rises and quick washes, amplified fluctuations, and technical support and resistance are easily broken down by news in an instant and then quickly recovered.
Next week's technical trend analysis - Baseline prediction: High and wide fluctuations will be the main trend. Prioritize waiting for a breakthrough in direction, and do not predict a sustained unilateral rise. On the daily chart, WTI crude oil rebounded for two consecutive days and stood above the 5-day simple moving average of $98.99. The short-term moving average began to flatten and converge and turned upward to diverge, indicating that the early callback structure has been broken and bulls have regained the initiative; RSI (14) is near 69, indicating a moderate release of upward momentum, which is a typical "bullish trend, approaching resistance" pattern. The upper resistance is US$103.22 {last week's high} and US$103.00, of which US$103.22 is the highest in the past six months. Only if the daily entity effectively stands at this position can the medium-term upward space be confirmed to open to US$104.74 {high in May this year}, and US$105 {integer mark} area. The support below first looks at the early market psychological resistance of $100.00, followed by the 5-day simple moving average of $98.99. This position is a key defensive position in the near future. If it fails, it may fall back to $96.70 or even lower.

Today you can consider going long crude oil at 102.75, stop loss: 102.60; target: 104.00; 105.50

spot gold

Last week, gold fell below $4,000 an ounce to $3,975, near its lowest level in nearly three months. The selloff in technology and artificial intelligence stocks intensified, prompting traders to dump precious metals to offset losses in other assets. The overall stock market decline intensified this week after Yuan Platform planned to increase capital expenditures, which once again triggered market concerns that technology companies may borrow more debt to fund investment in artificial intelligence construction. Rising oil prices also continued to weigh on gold prices, raising inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain high for longer. However, the market is increasingly doubtful about the sustainability of investment in artificial intelligence, a key driver of U.S. economic growth. This has prompted the market to lower its expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which may provide some support for precious metals.
Gold rebounded slightly after falling to a three-month low before the end of last week and falling below the psychological $4,000 mark, but the upside appears to be limited. The Federal Reserve recently signaled that there is no urgency to raise interest rates. However, traders are still pricing in about an 80% chance of another rate hike from the Fed at its December policy meeting. Additionally, concerns about oil-driven inflation have bolstered prospects for further tightening by the Federal Reserve, a key factor driving outflows from the non-yielding precious metal. Indeed, crude prices are hovering near the one-month high hit last week as escalating conflict in the Middle East stokes supply concerns. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels has escalated dramatically, leading the Houthis to launch drone and missile attacks on the kingdom's airports and critical energy infrastructure. In further developments, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that if the United States launches another attack, Tehran may invade neighboring countries and strike bases used for US military operations as part of its new offensive strategy.

Current price reference: Currently around 3,996, it fell to $3,975 earlier, close to the lowest level in the past three months. Last week was a week when the high range broke and accelerated the downward trend. The short-term trend has become weak. The core events next week: the Federal Reserve FOMC resolution and PCE inflation data are the watershed in the short-term direction. At the beginning of this week, the gold price was still oscillating in the wide box of 4140-4200, and the bulls repeatedly tried to attack upwards and came under pressure. On Thursday, there was a large negative line with heavy volume, which directly fell below the 4100 support at the lower edge of the box, opening up the downward space. On Friday, the Asian market fell further, and the lowest was pierced. The psychological mark of 4000 reached 3975, and then quickly recovered in a V-shaped manner. It competed repeatedly at the 4000 mark. The weekly line is likely to close with a large negative line and a lower shadow. It is a broken weekly pattern that turns from shock to decline.

Last week it did not fall below the short-term trading range support, and continued to close at the integer mark of $4,100, and below the previous low of $4,066, which is regarded as a key trigger for gold/dollar shorts. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI), at 33.24, is hovering above oversold territory, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), at -6.51, remains in negative territory, suggesting that downward pressure remains despite some early signs of stabilization. However, the precious metal is still showing some resilience below the psychological $4,000 mark, so caution is warranted before positioning for further declines. Meanwhile, any attempted rebound is more likely to attract fresh selling and fizzle out near the breakout of trading range support, now turned into resistance, near the $4,066-$4,100 area. This is followed by the integer mark of $4,171. If this position is overcome, it may trigger a short-covering rebound and push gold/USD towards the intermediate resistance level of $4,171 {25-day moving average}, and then point to the $4,200 mark. On the downside, consider $3,975 {last week’s low}. It broke below the $3,800 mark.

Today you can consider going long gold at 3,990, stop loss: 3,985; target: 4,040; 4,050