Equity Analysis
Australia ASX 200 Index
Market Overview
The S&P/ASX 200 closed almost flat on Tuesday at 8,918, as strength in business services, energy and financials offset declines in consumer goods, transport and retail. The market recovered from early losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected. The central bank also warned that inflation remains above target despite three rate hikes this year, suggesting it is prepared to tighten further if price pressures persist. In China, Australia’s key trading partner, the latest data were mixed: May retail sales missed expectations, while industrial output accelerated and unemployment fell to a five-month low.

Northern Star Resources (+2.5%), Cochlear (+2.1%) and Perseus Mining (+1.5%) led the gains, while the four major banks rose by 0.2% to 0.9%. On the downside, PLS Group fell 4.6%, South32 declined 4.5%, WiseTech Global lost 3.9% and Technology One dropped 2.1%. Traders are now preparing for the first policy meeting under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with the rate decision due on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 finished Tuesday almost unchanged at 8,918 amid cautious positioning ahead of the RBA rate decision. Technically, the short-term bias remains range-bound to mildly bearish. Short-term traders may consider small tactical shorts with strict risk control, while long-side entries should wait for a clear pullback-and-stabilisation signal. The daily RSI (14) is around 48, neutral to slightly weak, having retreated from the overbought zone without any obvious divergence. The daily MACD histogram is narrowing and the signal line is flattening, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a possible bearish crossover.

Key support levels are 8,800 (psychological level), 8,778 (21-day EMA) and 8,700 (50-day EMA), with 8,778 serving as the key defensive line. Resistance sits at 8,900 (recent high) and 8,950 (seven-week high), where overhead pressure remains significant. Any upside breakout would require confirmation from stronger volume.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Market Overview
The Hang Seng Index fell 250 points, or 1.0%, to 24,590 on Tuesday, ending a two-day rebound as investors locked in recent gains after a strong start to the week. Sentiment also softened ahead of key Chinese economic releases, including industrial production, retail sales, house prices and unemployment, which could provide fresh insight into the strength of China’s recovery. Weakness in financials and technology stocks weighed on the benchmark after both sectors had led the previous session’s rally.

Knowledge Graph-related names fell by as much as 2.9% as investors took profit after a surge of nearly 33% in the previous session. Notable laggards included Tencent Holdings (-1.4%), SMIC (-0.4%), AIA (-1.0%), MMG (-10.3%) and China Hongqiao Group (-4.0%).

Technical Analysis
The Hang Seng Index closed Tuesday at 24,493.95, down 348.72 points or 1.40%. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.24% to 4,649, approaching its recent low at 4,611. Heavyweight internet and technology names sold off broadly, dragging the overall market lower.

Tuesday’s long bearish candle fully engulfed Monday’s gains, forming a bearish engulfing reversal pattern. The index opened under pressure and traded below the 5-day moving average throughout the day, showing that bullish counterattack momentum had been exhausted. Monday’s failed push toward the 25,000 level had already created the need for an overbought pullback. Tuesday’s sell-off, with no major new negative catalyst, was mainly a combination of technical profit-taking and weaker sentiment.

The MACD lines have both turned lower and remain below the zero line, indicating strengthening bearish momentum and limited scope for a quick repair in the short-term bullish structure. The 14-day RSI fell from around 56 on Monday to near 43, moving out of the neutral-to-bullish zone and into weak territory. It has not yet reached the sub-25 oversold zone, suggesting the adjustment may not be fully complete and further short-term downside risk remains.

Currency Analysis
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index stabilised around 99.60 on Tuesday after falling in the previous session, as investors shifted their attention from the announcement of a US-Iran peace agreement to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. The market widely expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Policymakers, however, face a challenging backdrop: recent inflation data have exceeded expectations, partly because the conflict with Iran pushed energy prices higher. Investors are also watching policy decisions this week from the central banks of Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and other major economies. On Monday, the dollar came under pressure after President Trump announced that the US had reached a peace agreement with Iran to restore access to the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

At the start of the week, the dollar extended its weakness and hovered near the 99.50–99.60 low area, with the bearish structure unchanged. Trading volumes were relatively light, and market attention is fully focused on the Fed’s June policy meeting. This will be Warsh’s first press conference as chair. His comments on the inflation outlook and rate path will help fill the market’s current “black box” around his policy framework.

Technically, the market has already started pricing in part of that uncertainty. Indicators and price action are moving lower in sync, with no bullish divergence, suggesting bearish momentum may still have room to run. On the daily chart, the 9-day moving average at 99.82 is the bulls’ lifeline and the first threshold for a trend shift. Last week’s high at 100.31 is an important medium-term resistance. On the downside, this week’s low at 99.38 is fragile short-term support. If the policy tone is confirmed as dovish, the index may quickly test the recent low at 98.75 and could even slide toward the cycle low at 98.41. 

AUD/USD
AUD/USD continued to trade lower near 0.7060 after the Reserve Bank of Australia paused its rate-hiking cycle as expected. The pair is now looking to RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for fresh trading catalysts. The central bank’s nine members voted unanimously to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, citing signs that three earlier rate hikes are beginning to affect the economy. Although policymakers reiterated that inflation remains elevated and warned that higher energy costs present upside risks, a recent run of softer data gave the RBA room to pause and assess the impact of previous tightening. Markets now await Bullock’s comments later today for signals on whether policymakers are leaning toward a longer pause or retaining a tightening bias. Three of Australia’s four major banks expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged through the rest of 2026, while some analysts have pointed to slowing economic momentum and even forecast rate cuts next year.

AUD/USD is currently in a technical correction phase within a medium-term uptrend. After meeting resistance at the previous high of 0.7270, the pair fell to 0.6979 and then began to rebound. It is now trading near 0.7070, testing a key moving-average zone and the line between bullish and bearish control. In the moving-average structure, price remains above the 200-day MA at 0.6846, so the medium-term trend is still constructive. However, the pair is capped by the 20-day and 50-day MAs and is oscillating around the 100-day MA, showing a tight tug-of-war.

The previous low area at 0.6979–0.7018 forms strong support. If this zone holds, the current rebound structure remains intact. Initial resistance sits in the 0.7110–0.7144 area, where the 20-day and 50-day MAs are located, followed by the previous high resistance band at 0.7186–0.7270. The MACD lines remain below zero and are converging; although the red histogram briefly expanded, momentum remains weak and a clear bullish crossover has not yet formed. RSI is neutral around 45, with no overbought or oversold signal, indicating the market has not yet formed a clear one-sided bias.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD pulled back after modest gains in the previous session and traded slightly above 1.3400 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair eased as the US dollar drew support from market caution over further progress in US-Iran peace talks. Although President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding had been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, market participants remained cautious. According to Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% target range at Wednesday’s policy meeting. Traders will watch the press conference closely for clues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will guide the central bank into its next phase.

The daily chart shows sterling trapped in a tightening range. Monday’s close was near 1.3400, almost exactly around the 200-period EMA, while the 50-period EMA forms resistance just below 1.3450. The two moving averages are only about 40 pips apart, a typical compression pattern that signals an expansion in volatility, though direction remains unclear. The daily Stochastic RSI sits in the middle zone around 44, remaining neutral and consistent with a consolidation pattern. The 1.3400 area is the key pivot for the FOMC decision.

Resistance: short-term supply is located near 1.3450, where Monday’s rally stalled and where the 50-period EMA overlaps. A clean break and hold above this level would point to 1.3500, with less resistance until 1.3550. Support: 1.3400 is the key near-term pivot, with the 200-period EMA just below the closing price. If Fed-driven dollar buying pushes the pair below this level, targets would shift to 1.3342, near the lower Bollinger Band, and then 1.3300, the round-number level. 

USD/JPY
USD/JPY recovered during early European trading on Tuesday and moved toward 160.50 after the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision. As widely expected, the Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 1%, but the move provided little support for the yen. Attention now turns to the press conference by BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. The yen has recently faced persistent selling pressure as traders have increased short positions through carry trades, borrowing low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding alternatives. This trend reflects the interest-rate differential between Japan and the United States, largely offsetting the BoJ’s gradual tightening and Tokyo’s repeated currency-intervention efforts. Investors also continue to monitor geopolitical developments, with the US and Iran expected to sign a peace agreement in Switzerland on Friday, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY has risen steadily from the 155.05 low and has moved closer to the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting trend inertia has not yet been fully broken. However, repeated selling pressure has appeared around the double-top area between 160.60, the June high, and 160.73, the April high, indicating weaker momentum chasing the move higher. In terms of price action, the pullback after resistance at 160.60 was confirmed by a MACD bearish crossover on the 240-minute chart, leaving short-term momentum tilted to the downside.

Price is currently trading between 160.60, the June high, and 159.73, the week’s early low. Given that the Bollinger Bands are compressing and volatility has fallen to recent lows, breakout energy is building and a directional move appears close. Resistance is located in the double-top zone at 160.60–160.73. A decisive break would suggest that short-term pullback pressure has been released, with the next level near 161. Support is located at 159.73, followed by the 159.00 round number.

EUR/USD
EUR/USD held near 1.1600 during Tuesday’s European session. The major pair declined as the dollar strengthened, while investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed’s announcement is expected to have a significant impact on the dollar because it will be the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Chair Warsh may maintain a neutral tone on the monetary-policy outlook, even though inflation pressure has intensified due to elevated energy prices. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Meanwhile, the euro has outperformed some of its risk-currency peers as markets expect the European Central Bank may tighten policy further. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Monday that the central bank would need to act again “if necessary” and warned that upside inflation risks remain.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1600 with a moderate bearish tilt. It remains below the 20-period EMA at 1.1610 and below the descending resistance trendline from 1.1849. Price is still above the former rising support trendline anchored at 1.1409, but RSI is around 44, below the midpoint, suggesting that rebound attempts are fragile and sellers still have the upper hand.

Initial resistance is near the 20-period EMA at 1.1610, followed by the downside-trendline breakout level at 1.1687 and the origin of the descending line at 1.1849. Initial support is located at the previous rising-trendline break zone near 1.1506, with deeper support at the 1.1409 trendline origin. A decisive break below that area would strengthen the broader bearish structure. 

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
Crude oil traded below USD 75 per barrel on Tuesday after falling nearly 5% in the previous session, as investors waited for further details on a US-Iran peace agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The provisional agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. President Donald Trump said that once the agreement takes effect, oil from the Persian Gulf will flow freely again. However, neither Washington nor Tehran has released the text of the memorandum of understanding. This has kept the market cautious and led shipping companies to delay sending vessels through the route until there is greater clarity. Since the conflict began in late February, the oil market has been heavily disrupted, with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting roughly one-fifth of global crude shipments.

Expectations of easing US-Iran tensions have prompted the market to reassess the future supply outlook for crude oil. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has become the key variable for near-term oil-price direction. The market will need to watch the final implementation of the US-Iran agreement, the progress of Hormuz navigation and changes in global inventories. In the short term, WTI is expected to remain highly volatile and range-bound.

On the daily chart, WTI had previously sold off rapidly on expectations of a peace agreement and broke below its short-term uptrend line, indicating a clear loss of bullish momentum. Price is now fluctuating near the USD 80 round-number level, which has become an important short-term battleground between bulls and bears. If oil continues to break below support near USD 78.50, the week’s early low, it may pull back further toward USD 75 and then the USD 72.71 area, the 4 March low. Conversely, if price regains and holds above the USD 80 psychological level, it may retest USD 82 and the USD 85.40 area near the 100-day moving average. These levels will serve as key resistance for any short-term rebound; only a sustained move above them would ease current bearish pressure.

Spot Gold
Gold traded above USD 4,320 per ounce on Tuesday after rising more than 2% in the previous session. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement eased concerns about an energy-driven inflation shock, which had previously supported expectations for higher interest rates. The provisional agreement is expected to be signed by both sides in Switzerland on Friday, and President Trump said that once it takes effect, the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf will resume. However, neither Washington nor Tehran has published the text of the memorandum of understanding, keeping investors cautious. Markets are also watching a series of central-bank policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates unchanged at its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Overall, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has brought a meaningful “decompression” effect to global markets. Gold has shed part of its conflict premium and is shifting back toward a framework driven by expectations for easier rates. In the short term, gold is likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels while awaiting the Fed meeting outcome and further confirmation that the agreement will be signed. If Warsh adopts a dovish tone or the agreement is implemented smoothly, gold may continue to test higher levels. Conversely, renewed geopolitical risk or a surprisingly hawkish Fed would create pullback pressure.

On the daily chart, gold is trading above USD 4,300 but shows a short-term bearish tilt because spot prices remain below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages. These moving averages are clustered above current price, suggesting that the rebound is a correction within a broader downtrend. The 14-day RSI is around 43.24, indicating only moderate negative momentum rather than a clear oversold condition.

Initial resistance is near Monday’s high around USD 4,369, followed by the USD 4,400 round number and the 20-day moving average near USD 4,405, where the rebound may face its first important supply zone. Higher up, the 200-day simple moving average around USD 4,457 forms a stronger resistance level. Key short-term support lies at USD 4,262, Monday’s low, and near the USD 4,200 round-number area.