US Dollar 

The US Dollar Index fell from a two-month high of 100.26 to 98.68 before the weekend, a decline of 1.28 percent. The drop was driven by signs of a weakening labor market, which strengthened the case for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and raised concerns about reduced trade flows. As several members of the Federal Open Market Committee voiced support for lowering borrowing costs, the market increased its bets on a series of rate cuts.

At the same time, the administration began implementing the first round of reciprocal tariffs at the start of August, targeting the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, while Brazil, Switzerland, and India are expected to face sharp tariff hikes next week. Eurozone inflation also came in higher than expected, bolstering the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank and putting additional downward pressure on the dollar against the euro.

Market sentiment remains cautious, however, as President Donald Trump’s new tariff package, effective August 1, imposes duties of between 10 and 41 percent on imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, after trade negotiations with these economies failed to reach an agreement before the deadline.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index has retreated to 98.68 but remains above the key support zone of 98.30, marked by the 50-day simple moving average, and the 98.00 psychological level. It continues to trade above both its short- and medium-term moving averages. The MACD is in a bullish expansion phase, while the 14-day relative strength index is holding just above 50, indicating that upward momentum has not fully faded.

If the index can break and hold above 98.30 and 98.00, the next upside target would be 99.00, followed by 99.78, which is aligned with the 100-day simple moving average, while 100.00 remains the key psychological resistance. On the other hand, if the index fails to hold above 98.30 to 98.00, it could face a deeper pullback toward last week’s low of 97.49 from February 4, and then the 97.00 level. A decisive close above 100.00 is still the critical factor for confirming a sustained bullish move.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude oil fell 2.7 percent before the weekend, closing near 67.00 dollars per barrel. However, it still posted a gain of more than 3 percent for the week following reports that OPEC and its allies may soon reach an agreement to increase production. Sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions indicated that a deal could be finalized as early as Sunday to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day, although the exact figure remains under negotiation. Market sentiment was also affected by President Donald Trump’s newly signed tariff package on imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, which is set to take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, prices were supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions after Trump threatened to impose 100 percent secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. Such measures could put as much as 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne exports at risk, particularly shipments to China and India. Progress in several trade agreements and the potential for further breakthroughs with China also helped limit losses.

On the daily chart, WTI crude has rebounded from last week’s low of 64.81 dollars and ended the week with a bullish close, now holding above 66.79 dollars, which corresponds to the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level from 76.74 to 63.72. The short-term moving averages are aligned in a bullish formation, while the MACD remains above the zero line and continues to expand, indicating strong upward momentum. However, prices are currently facing hesitation around the 70.00 psychological level and last Wednesday’s high of 70.02, combined with increasing geopolitical and policy headwinds, suggesting a cautious short-term outlook. A pullback could trigger profit-taking, with immediate support seen near 66.27 dollars, the 30-day simple moving average. A break below this level could lead to a further decline toward the 64.81-dollar support zone.

At present, the 9-day simple moving average at 66.92 and the 30-day simple moving average at 66.27 have formed a bullish golden cross pattern. If the price breaks above the 200-day simple moving average at 67.69, it could extend gains toward 68.69, which represents the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level. A further breakout could target the 70.00 psychological level and last Wednesday’s high at 70.02.

Spot Gold

Spot gold prices rose nearly 2 percent on Friday, climbing above 3,360 dollars per ounce as the latest US employment report further confirmed signs of a weakening labor market and strengthened expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 100,000, while May and June employment figures were also sharply revised downward. In response, markets are now pricing in a 75 percent probability of a rate cut in September, up from 45 percent prior to the report. This data came on the heels of Thursday’s stronger-than-expected PCE inflation reading, which highlighted persistent price pressures and added further complexity to the Fed’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump reaffirmed his plan for a 10 percent global base tariff and announced new retaliatory tariffs of up to 41 percent on countries lacking trade agreements with the US. He also introduced a 40 percent tariff on goods suspected of being rerouted through third countries to evade existing tariffs.

From a technical perspective, gold prices found support last week around the 100-day simple moving average at 3,270 dollars and the previous weekly low near 3,268. Since then, the post-FOMC decline appears to have paused. Oscillators on the daily chart have just started to gain positive momentum, suggesting that any sustained move above the 3,300 psychological level is likely to extend, with near-term resistance seen around 3,373.50 dollars, the July 25 high. A decisive break above this level could trigger a short-term rebound, pushing gold toward the next key resistance near the 3,400-dollar psychological level, followed by 3,439 dollars, the July 23 high.

On the downside, the 65-day simple moving average at 3,330.50 and the 3,300-dollar psychological level are expected to serve as immediate support. A break below this zone could lead gold to retest 3,268.50, last Wednesday’s low. If this level is breached, prices may slide toward the June monthly low in the 3,248–3,247 area. A decisive move below this support would likely act as a key trigger for bearish momentum, opening the way for a further decline toward the 3,200-dollar psychological level.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD held steady near 0.6460 on Friday, halting a six-day losing streak as the US dollar weakened broadly following a disappointing non-farm payroll report. The Australian dollar also found support after Australia avoided the latest round of US tariff hikes, with most of its exports remaining subject only to the standard 10 percent rate. Earlier last week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order revising “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries, raising rates to between 10 and 41 percent. Countries not listed in the order would automatically face a 10 percent tariff, while re-routed goods would be subject to an additional 40 percent levy. The order is scheduled to take effect seven days after signing. However, Australia managed to avoid the higher tariffs, even though it was previously threatened with an increase to 15–20 percent. The White House noted progress in trade and security negotiations, suggesting that Australia is among the countries close to reaching an agreement with the US.

Meanwhile, the commodity-linked Australian dollar came under pressure from a sharp decline in copper prices, which fell more than 18 percent after the US clarified that refined copper products would not be included in the new tariffs. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish outlook weighed further on the currency, contributing to its largest weekly loss since early March.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD was trading around 0.6460–0.6470 ahead of the weekend. Technical analysis indicates a bearish bias, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the 45 level, suggesting weak momentum. The pair remains below the 50-day simple moving average at 0.6511, reinforcing the short-term downside pressure. On the downside, key support lies at the two-month low of 0.6420, recorded on August 1. A break below this level could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the three-month low of 0.6372, along with the 150-day simple moving average near 0.6377. A deeper decline would bring the 0.6300 psychological level into focus.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.6500, followed by the 50-day simple moving average at 0.6512. A decisive break above these levels could strengthen both short- and medium-term momentum, paving the way for a move toward 0.6576, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement level from 0.6625 to 0.6420.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD gained fresh momentum, climbing back above 1.3270 after the US dollar sharply weakened following the release of a softer-than-expected US employment report. The dollar came under selling pressure as the US economy added only 73,000 jobs last month, well below analysts’ expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent, reinforcing the overall weak tone of the report. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has been hovering near a two-day high, rebounding from a four-month low around 1.3140, as investors began repricing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September meeting.

Several factors contributed to this shift in market sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US Q2 GDP growth and persistently high core PCE inflation had previously dampened rate cut bets, while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50 percent for the fifth consecutive meeting last Wednesday. However, the weaker labor data triggered renewed expectations that the Fed may ease policy in the coming months.

Despite the recent rebound, GBP/USD still ended the week down over 1 percent. The pair remains in a bearish technical setup, having fallen below the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3341 and the key psychological level of 1.3300. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading below 40, near oversold territory, signaling persistent downside pressure. On the downside, 1.3200 serves as an immediate support zone, followed by the 1.3140 area—lows recorded on May 12 and August 1. A break below these levels could open the door for a further drop toward the 1.3100 psychological level.

On the upside, initial resistance sits at 1.3300, followed by the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3341. A successful break above these levels could lead to further recovery toward 1.3389, the 89-day simple moving average, and then the 1.3400 psychological barrier.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is expected to close the session down by 0.18 percent after a weaker-than-expected US employment report triggered safe-haven demand for the yen. The pair tumbled more than 2 percent, sliding from around 150.91 to 147.28, before settling at 147.38 near the weekly low. Earlier in the week, USD/JPY briefly broke above 150.00 and reached a four-month high of 150.95, as the dollar remained supported following President Trump’s latest tariff actions. Trump reaffirmed his plan for a 10 percent global tariff and introduced retaliatory tariffs of up to 41 percent on countries without finalized trade agreements, alongside an additional 40 percent levy on transshipped goods. These measures heightened global trade tensions and initially boosted demand for the dollar.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last Thursday but raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. Policymakers struck a cautious tone, warning of a temporary decline in core inflation while highlighting increased risks from global trade uncertainty. External demand weakness and the impact of tighter US monetary policy continue to weigh on the yen.

Following the US jobs report, USD/JPY reversed sharply from its four-month high of 150.95, breaking below the psychological 150.00 level and the 200-day moving average at 149.56. This opened the door for a test of the July 31 daily low at 148.58, which was swiftly breached as sellers pushed the pair down to 147.28, marking its largest one-day drop since April 10 with a 2.21 percent decline. Momentum has shifted to a bearish bias, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which fell sharply from 69.50 to 58.90.

If USD/JPY breaks below the 147.00 level, the next key support sits at the July 24 swing low of 145.85, followed by a confluence with the 100-day moving average at 145.73. A decisive break of these levels could expose the 145.00 psychological handle. On the upside, a recovery above 148.00 and the 150-day moving average at 148.10 would indicate that buyers have regained control, potentially paving the way for a retest of the 200-day moving average at 149.56 and a subsequent move toward the 150.00 level.

EUR/USD

The euro rebounded sharply from a seven-week low of 1.1391 earlier in the session, climbing to 1.1600 with a 1.49 percent daily gain — its largest one-day advance since April 10. The move was fueled by a weaker-than-expected US employment report, which further strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 73,000 in July, well below the forecast of 100,000, while May and June figures were significantly revised lower. As a result, markets are now pricing in a 75 percent probability of a September rate cut, compared to 45 percent before the data release.

In Europe, inflation is expected to remain above the ECB’s target in the near term, making further ECB rate cuts less likely. However, markets are pricing a 60 percent probability of a 25-basis-point cut by the ECB in December, up from 50 percent prior to the US data. Recent data showed eurozone consumer inflation holding steady at 2.0 percent in July, slightly above expectations of 1.9 percent. Meanwhile, investors are also assessing the impact of newly announced US tariffs, which impose a 15 percent duty on EU exports to the United States.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains under pressure, having dropped to a seven-week low of 1.1391. Since its July 24 high of 1.1789, the pair has been in a clear downtrend. Technical indicators are sending mixed signals: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped to around 48.17, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 24 suggests the trend is beginning to gain momentum. For bulls to regain control, EUR/USD needs to reclaim 1.1600 (last Friday’s high) and 1.1604 (45-day simple moving average) to target 1.1674 (25-day SMA), followed by the psychological 1.1700 level. A break above this zone would expose 1.1777 (July 23 high).

On the downside, initial support sits at 1.1520 (60-day SMA) and 1.1500 (psychological level). Below that, 1.1423 (89-day SMA) and 1.1400 (key support) would come into play.

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