US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index held slightly above the 98.00 level on Monday, maintaining its recent upward momentum as investors assessed the latest developments in global trade. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1, further escalating trade tensions. This resurgence in buying pressure has helped the dollar rebound from a multi-year low near 96.38 earlier this month, pushing it toward the key resistance level around 98.00.

Although geopolitical tensions have slightly eased, trade narratives have once again taken center stage in driving global market sentiment and price action. In addition, resilient US yields and economic fundamentals have supported the dollar’s recovery, keeping it near the upper end of its recent trading range. While the Trump administration has taken a tougher stance on trade, evidence suggests the White House may actually prefer a weaker dollar. Markets are closely watching to see how the administration plans to address the record-high trade deficit. Efforts to bring manufacturing back to the US are reportedly underway, though such measures will require both time and capital.

After two consecutive weeks of declines, the US Dollar Index has rebounded. A break above 98.00 (a psychological level) and 98.30 (the 40-day simple moving average) would face temporary resistance at the 60-day simple moving average around 98.95 and the round number of 99.00, followed by the June high at 99.42 (June 23). On the technical side, the daily chart indicators remain slightly bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to near 48, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 13, suggesting a lack of trend strength.

On the downside, the 10-day simple moving average at 97.34 acts as short-term dynamic support. Sustained weakness below the 97.00 level could trigger a retest of the recent low around 96.38.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude oil fell 2.6% on Monday, dropping below $65.80 per barrel, after President Trump disappointed markets by not announcing new sanctions on Russian oil—despite earlier expectations of more aggressive action. While Trump warned that 100% secondary tariffs could be imposed on Russia if a ceasefire agreement isn’t reached within 50 days, the lack of immediate measures weighed on oil prices.

Meanwhile, Trump’s escalating global tariff threats—including a 30% levy on goods from the EU and Mexico—dampened risk appetite and raised concerns about weakening energy demand. Traders fear that protectionist trade policies could harm global growth and potentially lead to an oil supply glut later this year. Hedge funds have been cutting long positions at the fastest pace since February. However, some support came from Chinese trade data showing a rise in crude oil imports and increased Iranian oil purchases in June, suggesting a short-term rebound in demand.

Currently, WTI is trading just below the $66.00 mark, after briefly reaching a three-week high at $68.30. Prices are now consolidating below $67.10 (the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from $57.47 to $76.74) and the psychological level of $67.00, stabilizing in a tightening range. This zone now acts as immediate resistance.

On the downside, key support levels include the 40-day simple moving average at $65.52, and the June 24 low at $63.72. Technically, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above 50, indicating the initial signs of bullish momentum.

If WTI can break above the 200-day simple moving average at $68.07, it would confirm further upside potential, exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $69.37, and possibly testing the $70.00 psychological barrier. Structurally, WTI appears to be forming a short-term ascending triangle since late June, characterized by higher lows—a bullish signal indicating potential upward pressure.

Spot Gold

Gold prices rose to around $3,375 during early Monday trading, as traders rushed into traditional safe-haven assets in response to President Donald Trump escalating the global trade war with a new round of tariffs. After a bearish performance late last week, gold regained momentum and stabilized above $3,300. Upcoming US inflation data for June and further developments in US trade relations are likely to influence short-term gold price movements.

Gold capitalized on deteriorating market sentiment to climb into the $3,350 range. If safe-haven flows begin to dominate financial markets and investor concerns over a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economy intensify, gold could see further short-term upside. Conversely, if a new trade agreement is announced and market risk appetite returns, gold prices may remain under pressure.

At the start of the week, gold surged to a three-week high of $3,375. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed back above 50, while prices broke above the 50-day ($3,326.50) and 20-day ($3,339.50) simple moving averages—indicating hesitation among sellers.

On the upside, $3,400 (a static level and psychological barrier) serves as the next key resistance, followed by $3,445.70 (the June 16 high). A breakout above that level would likely open the door to a retest of $3,500, which marks the historical high and the top of the January–June uptrend.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day SMA of $3,339.50, followed by $3,300 (a psychological level), and then the $3,283–$3,282 zone, which aligns with the recent weekly low.

GBP/USD

The British pound traded around $1.3430 against the US dollar on Monday, marking a three-week low, following comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who said the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates further if the labor market continues to weaken.

At the start of the week, GBP/USD entered a bearish consolidation phase, fluctuating narrowly around the 1.3500 psychological level, just below Friday’s three-week low. The broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. The pair has been correcting lower from a near four-year high at 1.3789, with bears in control as the US dollar steadily rebounds from multi-year lows.

The resurgence of trade war concerns has triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, especially after President Trump announced new tariffs this week. Ongoing trade tensions and a hawkish tone in the recent FOMC minutes have further fueled the dollar’s strength, keeping GBP/USD under pressure near multi-day lows.

The continued slide in GBP/USD on Monday sets the stage for further downside. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below the neutral 50 mark, opening the door for more weakness. That said, buyers found strong immediate support at the 1.3420 level.

USD/JPY

On Monday, the Japanese yen remained under pressure against the US dollar, as interest rate expectations and ongoing tariff concerns continued to weigh on market sentiment. USD/JPY is currently advancing toward the psychological level of 148.00, with market participants turning their attention to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. This development follows President Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, which is scheduled to take effect on August 1.

In response, leaders from the EU and Mexico expressed their intention to continue negotiations with the Trump administration throughout the month, aiming to secure reduced tariff rates. Reports also indicate that the EU is expanding talks with other nations impacted by the tariffs, including Canada and Japan, and may be considering coordinated actions. On the domestic front, Japan’s core machinery orders declined by 0.6 percent month-on-month in May to 913.5 billion yen. Although still in negative territory, this reading marked a significant improvement from April’s sharp 9.1 percent drop and was better than the forecasted 1.5 percent decline.

At present, USD/JPY is trading slightly above 147.00, remaining above the key technical zones near 145.90, which corresponds to the 9-day simple moving average, and the 146.00 psychological level. While a full breakout has yet to be confirmed, the currency pair is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, supported by a sustained uptrend and recent higher highs. USD/JPY continues to hover around the 147.50 region, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 60, reaffirming the short-term bullish outlook and indicating growing buying interest, though a further upward push still requires confirmation.

If the pair manages to close decisively above the 147.00 to 147.50 range, the bullish case would be strengthened, potentially paving the way for a move toward the June 23 high at 148.03 and the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 149.38. On the other hand, USD/JPY still carries downside risks. A sustained drop below the 147.00 psychological level and the 5-day simple moving average near 146.78 could lead to a test of the 145.90 support area.

EUR/USD

On Monday, EUR/USD traded just below 1.1660, marking its fourth consecutive daily decline. The pair continued to retreat from the multi-year high of 1.1830 reached in early July. Financial markets remain largely driven by the agenda set by US President Donald Trump. With geopolitical tensions easing, Trump’s focus has shifted back to tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy. Since the beginning of the week, speculative interest has centered on the July 9 tariff deadline. Trump’s stated objective is to secure better trade agreements with all affected countries, but as the deadline approaches, actual deals remain scarce, particularly with key rivals—and certainly not with China. Trump’s threats have increased market uncertainty, which has to some extent supported the US dollar, favored for its safe-haven status. Nevertheless, the dollar’s gains remain limited as concerns over the future of the US economy continue to mount.

The daily chart of EUR/USD shows that the pair is entering a phase of correcting its overbought condition. Technical indicators have pulled back from recent highs and continue to decline, though they remain close to overbought levels, suggesting that bullish momentum has paused but not yet reversed. EUR/USD continues to trade above the 25-day simple moving average at 1.1650, as well as the key support zone around 1.1638, which corresponds to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.1446 to 1.1830.

The next major support lies at the 1.1600 psychological level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 60, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. This signals increased selling interest, although it does not yet confirm a new downward trend. On the upside, EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.1739, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, followed by stronger resistance around 1.1767, last week’s high. A break above this latter level would likely indicate that the correction is complete and could open the way for a renewed test of the year-to-date high at 1.1830.

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