US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index was strong against major currencies on Thursday, avoiding further downside pressure. Traders remain focused on the Fed's latest policy stance, which has strengthened expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. Despite strong economic data, the index remained confined to the 103.00–104.00 range. The Dollar Index rose to 104.00 during the European session on Thursday as the Fed kept borrowing costs unchanged and expected two rate cuts in 2025. At the Fed meeting on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said that any increase in inflation caused by tariffs would be "transient." He also said that the probability of a recession has increased, but it is not high, and any data that is far below the benchmark could trigger a weaker dollar. On the other hand, while the dollar has stabilized in recent trading sessions, the direction of the dollar in the short term will depend on the strength of the upcoming economic data. Powell's comments further reinforced the Fed's data dependence, causing the dollar to retreat slightly.

The Dollar Index is trying to break out of a short-term technical descending triangle pattern. The flat bottom of the triangle at 103.18 should act as strong support. The current attempt by the US Dollar Index to break out of this pattern could signal a reversal, although strong resistance awaits near 104.00. If bulls can avoid the technical round-number mark at 104.00, and 104.07 (14-day SMA), a sharp rise could occur, sprinting towards the 105.00 round-number mark, where the 200-day SMA converges and reinforces this area as strong resistance. Once this area is broken, a series of key levels, such as 105.57 (March 5 high), may limit the upward momentum. On the downside, 103.32 (Thursday's low), and the 103.00 round-number mark may be considered as bearish targets if US yields retreat on deteriorating US data, and if the market further abandons its long-term US dollar position, even 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 100.16 to 110.18) is also under consideration.

Consider shorting the US dollar index around 103.90 today, stop loss: 104.05, target: 103.50, 103.40

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday, international oil prices rose due to the United States' tightening restrictions on Iranian crude oil exports, increasing pressure on Tehran in negotiations on a new nuclear deal. WTI crude oil traded around $67.20 in early Asian trading on Thursday. Crude oil prices rose slightly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged may limit the upside of WTI prices. The Israeli military resumed ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip. Transportation disruptions in the Red Sea led to higher energy transportation prices and WTI prices as oil and gas cargo transportation was forced to take longer routes. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its March meeting on Wednesday, in line with widespread expectations. However, Fed officials still expect to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of this year due to slowing economic growth and falling inflation. This in turn has raised concerns about slowing energy demand and put pressure on WTI prices.

From the daily chart, WTI crude oil rebounded repeatedly this week and may test the support level of $70.05 per barrel, but the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is still deeply trapped in the negative area (the latest report is around 41.30). The short-term trend of crude oil prices may see a technical correction again, and it is very likely to fall below the support level of the low of $66.11 (March 13 low) and $66.00 (round mark). If it breaks, it will move towards the range of $65.00 (this year's low) and $64.75 (last September 10 low). On the other hand, if oil returns to above the resistance level of $68.00 (the psychological barrier of the market. The next resistance level is $68.50 (Tuesday's high), and $68.51 (25-day moving average), breaking through this resistance level may trigger an upward trend to the psychological barrier of $70.00.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 68.05, stop loss: 67.90; target: 69.20; 69.40

Spot Gold

Gold prices retreated on Thursday as bulls took a breather following the latest Fed monetary policy decision and escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Gold/USD traded at $3,045. Gold prices climbed three times late this week to a new all-time high of $3,057.50 below the all-time high and are currently trading around $3,032. Although there has been some selling pressure due to profit-taking, at the same time, on the geopolitical front, tensions are rising in Gaza and Turkey. Israel's air strikes in Gaza continue, while calling on the population to migrate as a ground offensive may soon begin. Massive protests broke out in Turkey after the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. On the other hand, Gold entered a bull market after a strong break above $3,000 and will continue to move higher on uncertainty in asset markets and concerns about rising inflation. Gold prices hit a new all-time high, reflecting market concerns about economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at rate cuts, further strengthening gold's safe-haven appeal.

Gold currently seems to be trading in a very simple narrative, and traders are more than happy to buy every short-term pullback. A similar pattern has already emerged on Monday and Wednesday this week. However, risks are increasing and a squeeze may soon occur, which will wash out short-term positions. Regarding technical levels, the new all-time high of $3,057 is the first level that needs to be broken. The next target for the rest of the week is 3,054.0 The high of $2,000 (178.6% Fibonacci rebound from $2,956 to $2,832) is the first level to be broken. Next is $3,080 (200.0% Fibonacci rebound). Once broken, the next level will point to the resistance level of the round number mark of $3,100. On the downside, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is still deeply trapped in the overbought area (latest report 71.10). It shows that the short-term trend of gold prices may be a correction, so the intraday pivot of $3,024 may be the first line of defense, followed by the level close to $3,000. If the $3,000 mark is broken, pay attention to the support of $2,982 (low at the beginning of the week) as an important support.

Today, it can be considered at 3,040 Long Gold, Stop Loss: 3,037; Target: 3,060.00; 3.065.00

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, reversing the gains of the previous session and falling below the key support of 0.6300. AUD/USD faced downward pressure due to the release of domestic employment data. The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar, reversing the gains of the previous session. AUD/USD faced downward pressure due to the release of domestic employment data. Australia's employment change fell by 52.8K in February, compared with an increase of 30.5K in January (revised to 44K), missing the consensus expectation of 30.0K. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in February, in line with market expectations. In China, the People's Bank of China kept the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged on Thursday. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% at its March meeting, in line with widespread expectations. The Fed reiterated that it expects two rate cuts later this year, but mentioned the uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff policy.

From the 4-hour and daily charts, AUD/USD has recently rebounded significantly above the low of 0.6187 at the beginning of this month, but has been sideways and slightly retreated in recent trading days, indicating that the short-term divergence between long and short positions has begun to increase. The technical pattern shows a wide range of fluctuations, and the long and short forces are temporarily balanced. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily line oscillates around 50, and does not show severe overbought or oversold. Therefore, the upper resistance can first focus on the 100-day moving average of 0.6340 and the higher 0.6377 (Wednesday's high) as the first strong resistance. If the market moves higher in the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the integer level of 0.6400. As for the lower support, consider 0.6258 (March 11 low). If this key area is decisively broken, it may weaken the bullish outlook and put AUD/USD under further downward pressure, with the target pointing to the integer level of 0.6200.

Consider going long on AUD today until 0.6290, stop loss: 0.6280; target: 0.6350; 0.6360.

GBP/USD

The British pound weakened against the US dollar after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged and warned that a rate cut may be possible due to "current economic uncertainty". GBP/USD traded at 1.2960. Traders are still digesting the BoE's decision, which was not unanimous, with Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra as a dissenter, voting for a 25 basis point rate cut. In its monetary policy statement, the BoE maintained that "a gradual and cautious approach to policy tightening remains appropriate". The BoE reiterated that monetary policy is not on a preset course and added that domestic wage pressures remain high, although easing. BoE officials pointed out that labor costs have driven the rise in non-energy commodity prices and highlighted that surveys show weak economic growth. After initially rebounding around 1.2979, GBP/USD retreated and retested the daily low of 1.2935. Currently, the pair is stable around 1.2960, but still below the opening price.

After extending the two-month rally above the key level of 1.3000 against the US dollar on Thursday, the British pound bulls took a breather at the near-weekly low of 1.2936 during the European session, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart retreated from the overbought level above 72.00 at this week's high to around 65. However, this does not mean the end of the bullish trend. Once the momentum oscillator cools down to near 60.00, the upward trend may resume. The first revisit position is the 1.2900 round number mark, followed by 1.2957 (9-day moving average). A break below 1.2915 (14-day moving average), and the 1.2900 round number mark level may weaken the short-term exchange rate momentum and push the pair towards the 1.2796 (200-day moving average) level.

Today, we recommend going long GBP before 1.2950, ​​stop loss: 1.2938, target: 1.3000, 1.3010

USD/JPY

Expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates and strong wage growth may boost consumer spending, keeping the yen on a buying tone in the first half of Thursday's European trading session. This in turn may lead to rising inflation and provide room for the Bank of Japan to further tighten policy. The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen. In addition, uncertainty about US President Trump's trade policy and geopolitical risks are other factors that support the yen's safe-haven status. This further caused USD/JPY to slip to around 148.00 during the day, although a slight rebound in the US dollar helped limit further losses. At the same time, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates several times this year should limit the gains of the US dollar and the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the failure to find support above the psychological level of 150.00 overnight and the subsequent decline suggest that the momentum of the recent rebound from multi-month lows has been exhausted. Moreover, negative oscillators on the daily chart support the prospect of further USD/JPY depreciation. Therefore, continued weakness below the 148.00 mark, the downward trajectory may extend further to the 147.30 area, close to the lowest level of the 147.00 round number mark and 146.55 (March 11 low). On the other hand, any attempt to rebound may now face immediate resistance near the Asian session high near the 148.90 mark. Next is the supply zone of 149.00, above which USD/JPY may recapture the psychological market level of 150.00. Sustained buying above the overnight high of 150.15 area may trigger a short-term covering rebound and push the spot price to the monthly high, around 151.30 area.

Today, we recommend shorting the dollar before 149.00, stop loss: 149.20; target: 148.10, 148.00

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair fell for a second day, sliding to near 1.0830 on a stronger dollar, while investors digested uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy under President Trump, which the Federal Reserve has expressed concern about. The dollar index, which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, rose to near 104.00. The Federal Reserve said it was in no rush to adjust monetary policy amid "unusually high" uncertainty about the president's policies. "We will not rush to cut rates," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference. Contrary to the Fed's "wait-and-see approach," U.S. President Trump said the central bank should cut rates as the impact of tariffs is being transmitted to the economy. The Fed would be better off cutting rates when U.S. tariffs begin to gradually affect the economy. Do the right thing,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social after the Fed’s policy decision. He has been advocating for lower interest rates to boost economic growth.

EUR/USD fell to near 1.0830 after failing to hold the key 1.0900 level on Thursday. However, the long-term outlook for the major currency pair remains bullish as it remains near the 200-day moving average (1.0724). The pair strengthened to this month’s high of 1.0955 after breaking through the December 6 high of 1.0630 on March 5. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart retreated near 75.00, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened, but the upside bias remains. Sustained trading above 1.0900 will maintain the overall bullish outlook. Then there is 1.0955 (early week high), and a break below it points to the 1.1000 level, which has historically been an important barrier. Looking down, 1.0800 (market psychological level), The 16-day moving average of 1.0766 will serve as the main support range for the currency pair. If it breaks, it will test the 200-day moving average of 1.0724.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0842, stop loss: 1.0830, target: 1.0890, 1.0900.

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